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Retail & E-Commerce

The retail market in India has undergone a major transformation and has witnessed tremendous growth in the last 10 years. Indian retail market is estimated to reach US$ 2 trillion by 2032, driven by socio-demographic and economic factors such as urbanization, income growth and rise in nuclear families. 

On the other hand, the Indian e-commerce industry is expected to cross US$ 350 billion mark by 2030, growing at a CAGR of 23%.India is one of the most promising and developing marketplaces in the world. There is a great deal of desire among multinational corporations to take advantage of the consumer base in India and to enter the market first. 

Nearly 60 shopping malls encompassing a total retail space of 23.25 million sq. ft are expected to become operational during 2023-25. India ranks among the best countries to invest in the retail space. Factors that make India so attractive include having the largest population in the world, a rising middle-income class, increasing urbanization, connected rural consumers and increased discretionary spending amongst consumers.

  • India is ranked No. 2 in Global Retail Development Index (GRDI) in 2021

  • The retail sector in India accounts for over 10% of the country’s GDP and around 8% of the workforce (35+ million). It is expected to create 25 million new jobs by 2030

  • By 2030 India will add 140 million middle-income and 21 million high-income households – Leading to a huge emerging middle class.

  • Online shoppers in India are expected to reach ~500 million in 2030, more than 2x increase from 220 million users in 2022.

  • Rural per capita consumption will grow 4.3 times by 2030, compared to 3.5 times in urban areas

  • By 2030, India will add nearly 90 million new households headed by millennials, who were born into liberalized India.

  • Increasing demand for organized retail space has helped create a capacity of ~120 million square feet (MSF) in retail space across major Indian cities. Major Indian cities include Delhi (23.7 MSF) and Mumbai (16.7 MSF)

  • Food & Grocery, Apparel & footwear, and consumer electronics are the largest retail segments, constituting 63%, 9% and 7% respectively of the retail market

  • The E-Commerce market is projected to grow at 18% annually through 2025 and is expected to touch US$ 350 billion in GMV by 2030

  • Luxury retail market in India is valued at US$ 30 billion and is steadily growing owing to rising disposable income and increasing investment by foreign brands

  • India’s digital economy is expected to reach US$ 1 trillion by 2030

  • UPI accounts for a significant portion of all digital payments, accounting ~11 billion transactions valuing  US$ 210 billion in Nov 2023 alone

  • Digital payments gross transaction value ($T) is expected to grow from US$ 0.6 trillion in 2022 to US$ 3.1 trillion in 2030

  • he e-commerce market size in India reached approximately $123 billion in 2024, and it is expected to grow rapidly as consumer preferences shift toward online platforms.

  • Recent policy changes allow 100% FDI under the automatic route for single-brand retail trading and allow such entities to commence e-commerce operations prior to starting brick & mortar retail, provided they do so within 2 years of the start of online retail. 

  • The government's push for digital India, with initiatives like Digital India and Make in India, has positioned the sector for growth. The retail market in India is forecast to reach $1 trillion by 2025, with e-commerce playing a crucial role, expected to be worth $123 billion in 2024.
  • India-Asia Pacific
    India’s retail and e-commerce exports to the Asia Pacific region are growing, with countries like Japan, South Korea, and Australia playing a significant role. India’s apparel, consumer electronics, and textiles are the main exports, and digital platforms are becoming more popular for these products. The region’s retail trade value in 2024-2025 is projected to surpass $20 billion, with India’s e-commerce exports expanding by 18% annually. India also benefits from agreements under the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) which streamline trade within this region.
  • India-Gulf
    The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), particularly the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar, continues to be an important market for India’s retail exports. India exports goods like textiles, apparel, home decor, and consumer electronics. In 2024-2025, India’s retail exports to the Gulf are projected to exceed $15 billion, with e-commerce taking a more prominent role, particularly in the UAE, which is one of the largest digital trade hubs in the region. Additionally, agreements like the Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) with the UAE are expected to boost trade further.
  • India-Europe
    India’s retail sector in Europe is seeing growth, especially in markets like the UK, Germany, and France. Textiles, clothing, and organic products are the main exports from India. Retail exports to Europe in 2024-2025 are estimated to exceed $10 billion, with e-commerce gaining ground in niche segments like organic food and eco-friendly products. The EU's focus on sustainability and digital commerce presents a unique opportunity for India’s retail exports to thrive in this market.
  • India-America
    The United States continues to be a significant importer of Indian retail goods, with apparel, home decor, and consumer electronics leading the exports. E-commerce exports between India and the Americas are expected to grow at a rate of 15-18% annually, reaching around $15 billion by 2025. Major Indian e-commerce players like Flipkart and Amazon India are increasingly making their presence felt in the US market, further driving trade in this region. Future visions for India’s retail sector in North America include a larger focus on sustainability and digital trade collaborations.
  • India-Africa
    In Africa, India’s retail and e-commerce exports are expanding, particularly in countries like South Africa, Nigeria, and Kenya. Key exports include clothing, mobile phones, and electronics. Retail exports to Africa in 2024-2025 are expected to increase by 12%, with a growing emphasis on e-commerce as internet penetration rises. India's efforts to build digital infrastructure in the region are also contributing to this growth, making Africa a key market for India’s retail and e-commerce sector.
  • India-CIS
    India’s retail and e-commerce sector is witnessing growth in the CIS region, particularly in Russia, Kazakhstan, and Uzbekistan. Indian exports to the region include apparel, electronics, and food products. The CIS region's retail market is growing, with e-commerce accounting for an increasing share of trade. India’s retail exports to the CIS region in 2024-2025 are expected to surpass $5 billion, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10%. The growing demand for affordable consumer goods and Indian products like textiles and spices are fueling this expansion.
  • The government's future vision for India's retail and e-commerce sector, with a focus on digital transformation, infrastructure development, and sustainable trade practices, is expected to position India as a global leader in this space by 2030. The expansion of digital payment systems, improved logistics, and cross-border trade agreements will play a crucial role in achieving this vision.